With just one day left before the season, it’s time to round out my game-by-game predictions for 2010. So far, I have Michigan going 4-4 overall (1-3 Big Ten) with victories over UConn, UMass, Bowling Green, and Indiana:
Game Nine — Nov. 6: Illinois Blog of Note: Hail to the Orange 2009: 3-9 overall, 2-6 Big Ten Returning Starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
Breakdown: If anyone is feeling the hot seat as much as Rich Rodriguez right now, it’s Ron Zook, whose team has won a combined eight games in two seasons since making a surprising Rose Bowl run in 2007. Illinois might have a tough time even matching last season’s three victories after losing six offensive starters, including quarterback Juice Williams, receivers Arrelious Benn and Chris Duvalt, tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, and left tackle Jon Asamoah. Taking over for Williams at QB will be redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase, and the Illini may have to rely on tailbacks Mikel Leshoure (734 yards on 108 carries in 2009) and Jason Ford (294 yards and eight touchdowns) while Scheelhaase gets accustomed to playing at the collegiate level. Three starters return along the offensive line for the Illini.
The defense returns seven starters, but the unit will have to dramatically raise their level of play after the Illini allowed over 30 points and 400 yards per game last year. The linebackers should get a boost from the return of highly-touted junior Martez Wilson, who missed almost all of the 2009 season with a neck injury. Corey Liuget is a strong presence on the interior of the defensive line, but the loss of DT Josh Brent leaves a hole in the middle after entering the NFL supplemental draft when he faced academic issues. In the secondary, Illinois has two young staters returning at cornerback, but they’ll have to break in two new starters at safety.
At kicker, junior Derek Dimke returns after hitting 5-of-5 field goals when returning starter Matt Eller was benched for ineffectiveness. Eller is back as well, but Dimke remains at the top of the depth chart. Anthony Santella is back for his fourth season as the starting punter after averaging 41.3 yards per punt in 2009.
Key Matchup: Michigan’s ends & linebackers vs. Nathan Scheelhaase — Scheelhaase doesn’t have a game of collegiate experience under his belt, but he is a decent athlete who can move the sticks with his running ability. Facing an unproven quarterback and a depleted receiving corps, Michigan should look to contain Scheelhaase and force him to make the right decision with the football. Yes, Michigan’s secondary is a weak spot, but so is the Illini’s passing game — the last thing the Wolverines need is for the quarterback to run wild on them like Juice Williams has done the last two years.
Prediction: This should be Zook’s final year as Illinois coach as the team bottoms out without some of the top-level talent that kept them remotely competitive the last two seasons. Even against Michigan, this team looks very green and overmatched — Michigan 37, Illinois 17
Game Ten — Nov. 13: at Purdue Blogs of Note: Boiled Sports, Hammer & Rails 2009: 5-7 overall, 4-4 Big Ten Returning Starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense)
Breakdown: Purdue will feature their third starting quarterback in three years as Miami (FL) transfer Robert Marve, a former blue-chip prospect om 2007, takes over for Danny Hope’s squad. He will be missing one of the team’s top weapons, however, as running back Ralph Bolden will be out with a torn ACL suffered in the spring, leaving Purdue without a running back who carried the ball more than ten times in 2009. Marve does have one of the Big Ten’s top receivers returning in senior Keith Smith, who caught 91 passes for 1,100 yards and six touchdowns last fall, but he will have to throw from behind three new starters on the O-line.
On defense, the Boilermakers return six of their front seven, which will have to improve after Purdue finished 94th in the nation in rushing defense last year. They’ll be led by outside linebacker Joe Holland, who finished second on the team with 81 tackles last season, and defensive end Ryan Kerrigan, who tallied 13 sacks in 2009. The secondary is extremely inexperienced, however, with no starters returning and underclassmen dominating the two-deep. There could be a major dropoff after finishing 32nd in the country in pass efficiency defense last fall.
Kicker Carson Wiggs has a huge leg, which he displayed in hitting a 59-yard field goal in last year’s season opener, but he connected on just 14-of-21 attempts last season. Purdue will have to improve on their coverage units — they ranked 112th in the nation in kickoff return defense last season.
Key Matchup: Michigan’s passing game vs. Purdue’s secondary — We all expect that Michigan will be able to run the ball, but the real weakness for this Purdue squad is in the defensive backfield. No matter who is playing at quarterback by this point in the season, he should be able to pick apart this defense if the line gives him time to throw. If Michigan is moving the ball well through the air, this could be a blowout.
Prediction: Marve is an extremely talented player and a guy the Wolverine defense must respect, but Purdue is very thin at running back and their defense doesn’t look strong. Once again, Michigan should put enough points on the board to keep the defense from having the chance to blow the game — Michigan 34, Purdue 21
Game Eleven — Nov. 20: Wisconsin Blogs of Note: Bucky’s 5th Quarter, On Wisconsin! 2009: 10-3 overall, 5-3 Big Ten, defeated Miami (FL) 20-14 in Champs Sports Bowl Returning Starters: 16 (10 offense, 6 defense)
Breakdown: If Ohio State falters, Wisconsin could be next in line to win the Big Ten, especially with the return of ten starters from the conference’s top total, scoring, and rushing offense in 2009. Leading the way will be the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in tailback John Clay, who will run behind one of the country’s best run-blocking offensive lines. Quarterback Scott Tolzien led the Big Ten in passing efficiency last season, and he has a lot of options when he drops back to pass — wideouts Nick Toon, Isaac Anderson, David Gilreath and Kyle Jefferson all return, and Lance Kendricks looked great when filling in for the departed Garrett Graham at tight end last season. This should be the best and most well-rounded offense in the Big Ten in 2010.
The biggest question mark surrounding Wisconsin will be how they replace three starters along the defensive line, especially first-team All-Big Ten defensive end O’Brien Schofield. The onus will fall on DE J.J. Watt, who posted 15.5 tackles for loss in ’09, to become the team’s top pass-rusher and anchor the line while the three new starters get their feet wet. The linebackers are led by sophomore Mike Taylor, who totaled a team-high 46 tackles in the first seven games last year before missing the rest of the year with an injury, and senior Culmer St. Jean, who tallied 63 tackles last year. Two proven starters return in the secondary in corner Devin Smith and strong safety Jay Valai, but the team will have to break in two new starters as well. If there’s a major weakness on this team, it will likely be the pass defense, especially if the pass rush drops off in the absence of Schofield.
Wisconsin boasts two of the best specialists in the league in kicker Philip Welch and punter Brad Nortman, both juniors, but the return game needs to step it up after a disappointing ’09 performance.
Key Matchup: Mike Martin vs. center Peter Konz and guard John Moffit — Even though Wisconsin can move the ball through the air, their break-and-butter is still smashmouth, run-it-down-your-throat football. Mike Martin will have to hold the point of attack at nose guard against Moffit, one of the best guards in the country, and Konz, a sophomore. Stopping John Clay is priority number one, and Michigan won’t be able to do that if Martin doesn’t have one of his better days as a Wolverine.
Prediction: Despite some concerns in the secondary, Wisconsin is still one of the most complete teams Michigan will play this year. I don’t see how this defense finds a way to stop the run game without opening it up for Tolzien and his stable of wideouts — Wisconsin 31, Michigan 20
Breakdown: Ohio State is loaded up this year for a run at the national title, and their offense could be one of the best in the country if Terrelle Pryor breaks out as a junior. Pryor, a preseason Heisman candidate, will be surrounded by experienced weapons. Running backs Brandon Saine and Boom Herron return, and they’ll be helped by the presence of highly-touted freshman Jamaal Berry, giving the Buckeyes a three-headed monster in the backfield. Receivers DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher return, as does tight end Jake Stoneburner, and four starters return on a talent-laded offensive line. This should be an explosive unit for the Buckeyes.
On defense, Ohio State has some big-time talent to replace, as defensive end Thaddeus Gibson, tackle Doug Worthington, and safeties Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell are all gone from the nation’s fifth-ranked scoring and total defense. There’s still a ton of talent, though, especially in defensive end Cameron Heyward, linebackers Ross Homan and Brian Rolle (the team’s top two tacklers last year), and cornerback Chimdi Chekwa. The defense could be susceptible at the back end, as they will have two new starters at safety, but expect the Buckeyes to once again boast a very strong defensive unit.
The Buckeyes must replace kicker Aaron Pettrey, but senior Devin Barclay appears very capable of taking over as the next Buckeye kicker who seemingly never misses, and sophomore Ben Buchanan takes over for Jon Thoma at punter.
Key Matchup: Michigan vs. pressure/expectations — The Wolverines may very well be playing for their head coach’s job in this game, and they’ll be facing a team that should be one of the very best in the country. Last year saw an overmatched squad hang in there against the Buckeyes, only to be done in by untimely turnovers. In a rivalry game this big, anything can happen (see: 1995 and 1996, for instance) — in a game where it appears OSU has the advantage in nearly every facet, much of this game will come down to the maturity of the team. If they can hang in there and believe, this could be a lot closer than people expect.
Prediction: Having said that, um, have you looked at Ohio State’s roster? Any expectations that Michigan will be able to go into the ‘Shoe and knock off the Buckeyes are, at this point, entirely unrealistic (though we can all dream, right?) — Ohio State 27, Michigan 13
Final Season Record: 6-6 overall, 3-5 Big Ten — hello, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl!
Receiver Junior Heminway is questionable for the season opener with a hamstring injury.
Michigan has released the team injury report for the UConn game:
Out: Fitzgerald Toussaint (knee), Jared Van Slyke (clavicle), Troy Woolfolk (ankle) Questionable: Junior Hemingway (hamstring)
The only semi-surprise on there is Hemingway, who has been plagued with injuries the past two seasons. Michigan shouldn’t be in bad shape if he isn’t healthy enough to play with Martavious Odoms and Darryl Stonum starting on the outside and Roy Roundtree and Kelvin Grady battling for snaps in the slot. Toussaint’s injury, especially if it lingers for longer than a week, might keep him from finding a spot in the rotation as Vincent Smith, Michael Shaw, Mike Cox, and Stephen Hopkins all are healthy and battling for carries.
Last year I started doing a feature in the middle of the season called “The Numbers Game” — a simple statistical breakdown of Michigan and their upcoming opponent with a little analysis thrown in. This year, that feature will be back, but since it’s the first game of the season, this week’s version will look a little different. The Wall Street Journal just posted a statistical database for the 2010 preseason with some interesting categories, and I’ll be looking at many of those as we head into the opener (props to MGoUser Tacopants for posting the link on the MGoBoard):
CATEGORY
MICHIGAN
CONNECTICUT
ADVANTAGE
Lettermen Returning
53
39
Starters Returning (Off. & Def.)
14
16
% Receiving Yards Ret.
70.8
56.84
% Rushing Yards Ret.
55.68
51.51*
% Tackles Ret.
71.2
71.79
PUSH
% Punt Return Yards Ret.
64.53
20.21
% Kick Return Yards Ret.
90.35
23.47
Starting O-Lineman Starts Ret.
70
69
PUSH
Starting D-Backs Ret.
1
2
Starting D-Back Starts Ret.
8
21
Quarterback Starts Ret.
12
9
Avg. O-Lineman Weight
303.8
312.6
Avg. D-Lineman Weight
289
255.5
'09 Yards/Carry Nat'l Rank (sacks removed)
37
70
'09 Yards/Carry Def. Nat'l Rank (sacks removed)
86
58
'09 Pass Efficiency
76
65
'09 Pass Efficiency Def.
70
85
*I corrected this figure myself — the WSJ erroneously included graduated running back Andre Dixon’s 1093 yards among UConn’s returning total. As far as I could tell, everything else checked out fine.
For some more traditional statistics, here’s a comparison of the team’s leading returners:
Passing: Zach Frazer — 116-218 (53.2%), 1461 yards, 10 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Rushing: Jordan Todman — 215 attempts, 1138 yards, 14 touchdowns
Receiving: Isiah Moore — 24 catches, 286 yards, 1 touchdown
Tackles: Lawrence Wilson — 140 total (80 solo, 60 assist)
Interceptions: (Three tied at one apiece)
Very interesting to see that while Michigan has fewer starters returning they retain far more depth than UConn, who bring back 14 fewer lettermen than the Wolverines. That could play a big factor in a close contest, as could the ominous “8″ in the returning secondary starts column for U-M. I think this will be a closely-contested game through the final whistle, with Michigan having just enough firepower to pull out the W.
With the season just two (!) days away, it’s time to break down the schedule game by game. Yesterday, I looked at Michigan’s first four games, against Connecticut, Notre Dame, Massachusetts, and Bowling Green. Today, the schedule moves on to Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, and Penn State:
Game Five — Oct. 2: at Indiana
Blog of Note:The Crimson Quarry
2009: 4-8 overall, 1-7 Big Ten Returning Starters: 12 (8 offense, 4 defense)
Breakdown: The Hoosiers will rely on a high-flying passing offense (and a new scheme — the pistol) to keep them afloat as they replace seven starters from a defense that finished 91st in the country in scoring defense and 88th in total defense. Senior quarterback Ben Chappell is the Big Ten’s returning leader in passing yard per game, and he’ll have plenty of options to throw it to as Indiana brings back their top six receivers from 2009, including all-conference candidates Tanden Doss and Demarlo Belcher. Redshirt sophomore Darius Willis will look to build on a freshman campaign in which he rushed for over 600 yards and six touchdowns on just 123 attempts. The Hoosiers return three starters on their offensive line. This unit was only 84th in the nation in scoring offense a year ago, but they could improve that figure dramatically, especially if Chappell can cut down from the 15 interceptions he posted a year ago.
Not only will the Hoosiers be replacing sever starters and eight of the team’s top nine tacklers on defense, but they’ll be changing schemes as well, moving from a mostly 4-3 look to a 3-4, although they’ll still utilize multiple defensive fronts. On the defensive line, Indiana will sorely miss the pass-rushing of defensive ends Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton, and the onus will be on sophomore Adam Replogle get to the quarterback after moving to end from defensive tackle following an impressive freshman campaign. Elder brother Tyler Replogle, a senior outside linebacker, recorded 80 tackles last season, and like his brother will be the only returning starter at his position group. In the secondary, the Hoosiers return five players with starting experience, but only one full-time starter, after finishing 95th in the country in pass efficiency defense in 2009.
Kicker Nick Freeland returns for the Hoosiers, but after failing to make a field goal beyond 40 yards last season (and missing 11-of-25 overall) he is locked in a position battle with sophomore Mitch Ewald that could continue into the season. Junior Chris Hagerup, older brother of Michigan punter Will, averaged nearly 41 yards per punt last year.
Key Matchup: Michigan’s pass rush vs. Indiana’s offensive line — The Hoosiers have the talent at quarterback and receiver to really take advantage of Michigan’s depleted secondary, but they must replace two starters from their offensive line, including their left tackle. Quarterback Ben Chappell is mistake-prone, and getting pressure on him could be the key to allowing Michigan’s defense to get off the field. Look for the Wolverines to bring a lot of heat and see if Chappell can handle the pressure.
Prediction: Indiana’s offense should be much-improved, but their defense could be awful after losing most of the top players from a poor unit in 2009. The Hoosiers will put up some points. Michigan will put up more — Michigan 34, Indiana 28
Game Six — Oct. 9: Michigan State
Blog of Note:The Only Colors
2009: 6-7 overall, 4-4 Big Ten, lost to Texas Tech 41-31 in Alamo Bowl Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Breakdown: Michigan State returns a great deal of talent at the skill positions, led by junior quarterback Kirk Cousins, who finished third in the Big Ten in passing efficiency last season, sophomore tailbacks Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, and a bevy of experienced receivers, including B.J. Cunningham, Mark Dell, Keshawn Martin, and converted quarterback Keith Nichol. There are questions up front, however, as the Spartans must replace three of their five offensive linemen. How well the line comes together will go a long way towards determining the type of numbers this offense can put up — if they’re decent, this is a scary unit, but if they’re bad, Cousins has been known to force some passes under pressure.
Consensus All-American linebacker Greg Jones is back for his senior season, and he leads what should be a strong front seven. The Spartans must replace both of their starting defensive ends, but they return sophomore tackles Jerel Worthy, a first-team freshman All-American, and Blake Treadwell, who also impressed in his first collegiate season and will compete with junior Kevin Pickelman for a starting spot. Fifth-year senior linebacker Eric Gordon, who tallied 92 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2009, will start alongside Jones. As per usual, the big question mark for the Spartan defense is in the secondary, where three starters return for a team that finished 112th in pass defense last year. The defensive backs are the clear weakness on a team that otherwise looks very solid.
Michigan State will have to replace stalwart kicker Brett Swenson, who has moved on to the NFL — sophomore Dan Conroy and redshirt freshman Kevin Muma are still competing for the starting job. Senior Aaron Bates is a solid punter, and Keshawn Martin is a very dangerous return man on both punts and kickoffs.
Key Matchup: David Molk vs. Greg Jones — Molk won’t be the only Michigan player responsible for neutralizing MSU’s All-American linebacker, but as the center he’ll play a big role in how the Wolverines try to block Jones. If Michigan can find a way to establish the run against the strongest part of the Spartan defense, they have a very good chance of pulling off the win.
Prediction: Few things would please me more than a Michigan victory over our East Lansing neighbors, but that won’t come easy as the Wolverines have to find a way to slow down the Spartans’ passing offense. I think this one will be close, but ultimately State has the depth and experience to overcome the good guys — Michigan State 27, Michigan 20
Game Seven — Oct. 16: Iowa
Blogs of Note: Black Heart Gold Pants, Fight for Iowa 2009: 11-2 overall, 6-2 Big Ten, defeated Georgia Tech 24-14 in Orange Bowl
Returning Starters: 14 (6 offense, 8 defense)
Breakdown: Despite an 11-2 record, Iowa’s offense struggled to put points on the board last season, finishing just 86th in the country in scoring offense. They should be an improved unit this year, however, as quarterback Ricky Stanzi returns along with his top two receivers, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt, and promising running back Jewel Hampton is back from a knee injury that cost him all of 2009 (although he is suspended for the team’s first game). The Hawkeyes will have to replace All-Big Ten tight end Tony Moaeki, who you may remember tearing up the middle of Michigan’s defense last year, as well as three starters on the offensive line. If Stanzi can cut down on his mistakes — he threw 15 interceptions last season, including four that were returned for touchdowns — the Iowa offense should move back toward being a decent unit.
The real strength of the team is the defense, which allowed a mere 277 yards per game in 2009, good for 10th in the country. The front four is one of the best in the nation, and will feature defensive ends Adrian Clayborn (11.5 sacks in 2009) and Broderick Binns (63 tackles) and senior tackles Karl Klug (13 TFL) and Christian Ballard. The Hawkeyes do return only one starter at linebacker, senior Jeremiha Hunter, who finished with 89 tackles last year; senior Jeff Tarpanian takes over in the middle, and redshirt sophomore Tyler Nielsen will start on the strong side. The secondary should be strong once again, led by ball-hawking safety Tyler Sash (six interceptions in 2009) and strong safety Brett Greenwood — the pass defense gave up just 153 yards per game last year and could put up similar numbers in 2010.
Iowa returns two senior specialists in kicker Daniel Murray, who hit 19-of-26 field goals last year, and punter Ryan Donahue, who averaged 40.9 yards per punt.
Key Matchup: Mark Huyge and Perry Dorrestein vs. Iowa’s defensive ends — It will be tough for Michigan to move the ball on the ground or in the air against an outstanding Iowa defense, but Michigan’s offensive tackles could make that task a lot easier by not allowing Clayborn and Binns to run wild in the Wolverine backfield. Giving the quarterbacks time to find holes in a strong Iowa secondary is the key to Michigan moving the ball, and they won’t win unless they can find a way to keep Clayborn, especially, from making game-changing plays.
Prediction: Iowa is a team that appears ripe for an upset, especially if Stanzi can gift the Wolverines an interception or two, but Iowa’s defense might be too much to overcome if Michigan can’t find a way to get some stops on defense. Since we’re relying on the defense here — Iowa 27, Michigan 17
Game Eight — Oct. 30: at Penn State
Blogs of Note: Black Shoe Diaries, Nittany White Out, Linebacker U
2009: 11-2 overall, 6-2 Big Ten, defeated LSU 19-17 in Capital One Bowl
Returning Starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense)
Breakdown: The Nittany Lions return a lot of weapons on offense, including senior tailback Evan Royster and receivers Derek Moye and Graham Zug, but the quarterback situation muddles the picture a great deal. Sophomore Kevin Newsome, a former Michigan commit and four-star prospect, was expected to take over the starting job from Darryl Clark, but he has struggled mightily in spring and fall practices. Now, true freshman Robert Bolden has been tabbed as the starter, and the pressure will be on the dual-threat quarterback to put enough points on the board for Penn State to let its outstanding defense grind out wins. Penn State returns three starters on the O-line, including senior All-American candidate Stephan Wisniewski, who will move from center to guard this year. It all boils down to the quarterback when projecting the Nittany Lion offense — if Bolden is good, they’ll be one of the better units in the Big Ten; if not, they could be a liability.
The defense has some major holes to fill as well after losing six starters from the nation’s third-ranked scoring defense in 2009, including Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Jared Odrick and all three linebackers. Junior defensive end Jack Crawford and senior defensive tackle Ollie Ogbu return on the defensive line after combining for 22.5 tackles for loss last season — they’ll be joined by two redshirt juniors on what should be a strong front four. The secondary should also be solid, led by junior safeties Drew Astorino and Nick Sukay; Astorino is the team’s leading returning tackler after tallying 62 stops last year. Junior D’Anton Lynn will lock down one cornerback position, while Chaz Power, a converted wideout, currently sits atop the depth chart opposite Lynn. The linebackers are the big mystery, as all three starters must be replaced.
Key Matchup: Michigan’s linebackers vs. Evan Royster — With an unproven true freshman manning the helm at quarterback for Penn State, stopping tailback Evan Royster becomes the key to shutting down the Lions’ offense. That won’t be easy, as Royster is coming off an 1,169-yard season on just 205 attempts, but if Bolden has trouble moving the ball through the air, Michigan should be able to load up the box and force Penn State to beat them through the air.
Prediction: If this wasn’t a night game in Happy Valley, I’d be pretty optimistic about Michigan’s chances. Facing a team with a true freshman at quarterback should help mask Michigan’s biggest weakness, but in the end it’s tough to pick against Penn State at home — Penn State 27, Michigan 21
Division 1: Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota
Division 2: Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue.
Teams will play eight conference games, with games against all five other teams in their division, one protected cross-division rivalry (Ohio State for U-M, obviously), and two rotating cross-division games. Please note that these divisions only apply to football, and not to other sports. Michigan will play Ohio State at the end of the season.
The rest of the cross-divisional games are: Minnesota-Wisconsin, Penn State-Nebraska, Iowa-Purdue, Northwestern-Illinois, Michigan State-Indiana
Michigan’s 2011 and 2012 in-conference schedules were also released, and are as follows [you can find a pdf of the entire Big Ten schedule here]:
2011 (starting 10/1): Minnesota, at Northwestern, at Michigan State, bye, Purdue, at Iowa, at Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State
2012 (starting 9/29): bye, at Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, at Nebraska, at Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, at Ohio State
The official statement from the Big Ten:
The winner of each Big Ten division will meet in the inaugural Big Ten Football Championship Game, to be played December 3, 2011, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The championship game will determine the Big Ten Champion and the conference’s participant in the Rose Bowl Game or Bowl Championship Series National Championship Game.
The Big Ten football division alignments will include a division featuring Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin, and a division featuring Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern. Each school will play the other five schools within its division and will also face three teams from the other division, including one cross-division matchup guaranteed on an annual basis. The guaranteed cross-division matchups are Illinois-Northwestern, Indiana-Michigan State, Ohio State-Michigan, Penn State-Nebraska, Purdue-Iowa and Wisconsin-Minnesota. Names for each Big Ten football division will be announced at a later date.
“Over the past several months, Big Ten staff and directors of athletics have met on several occasions to discuss and finalize division alignments,” said Big Ten Commissioner James E. Delany. “We focused on competitive equality, traditional rivalries and geography. We considered multiple models and countless permutations in an effort to achieve the most competitively balanced divisions while at the same time respecting our traditions, preserving existing rivalries, and creating opportunities for the establishment and growth of new rivalries. We have listened to the feedback from our institutions, alumni and fans, and while we understand that no final alignments could possibly satisfy all of our constituents, we believe that we have achieved a very exciting result.”
I will refer you to what I wrote earlier, since I am in the middle of an ill-timed fantasy football draft:
You know what? I’ll take it. I know there’s a lot of consternation out there about competitive balance and how this affects The Game (the possibility that the Michigan-Ohio State game in the regular season could be somewhat meaningless, especially if only intra-divisional games count in the Big Ten Standings). I think when it comes down to it, however, The Game will still be The Game, and with how up-and-down college football is from year-to-year, let alone how much things can change in the span of a mere decade, there will always be some imbalance in the divisions one way or the other. Does everyone really expect Northwestern to buck 130 years of tradition and become a perennially decent team, especially if a big-name school tries to lure Pat Fitzgerald away?
I’m just saying, take a step back and look big picture here. We have what should be a tremendous rivalry between two tradition-rich schools with great fanbases in Michigan-Nebraska. The Little Brown Jug will be played for each and every season, like it should be. The already-bitter rivalry with Michigan State should only intensify. The Wolverines will get to duck Penn State and Wisconsin every once in a while, which should ease some of the team’s schedule difficulty. There will be a Big Ten Championship Game at the end of the season, like there should be — who doesn’t love big-time conference title games? Most importantly, The Game is in its rightful place, at the end of the regular season. And finally, unless every other writer claiming to have the inside scoop is astoundingly incorrect, Dennis Dodd is wrong, which makes this all feel very, very right.
On Saturday, the Big House will be full again, and we’ll all be enjoying (and stressing about, of course) the thing we should all be focusing on anyway: The Team, The Team, The Team.
From Larry Lage of the Associated Press, via Twitter:
We’ll see if that’s really how it plays out tonight, but it sounds like the rumors are true. You know what? I’ll take it. I know there’s a lot of consternation out there about competitive balance and how this affects The Game (the possibility that the Michigan-Ohio State game in the regular season could be somewhat meaningless, especially if only intra-divisional games count in the Big Ten Standings). I think when it comes down to it, however, The Game will still be The Game, and with how up-and-down college football is from year-to-year, let alone how much things can change in the span of a mere decade, there will always be some imbalance in the divisions one way or the other. Does everyone really expect Northwestern to buck 130 years of tradition and become a perennially decent team, especially if a big-name school tries to lure Pat Fitzgerald away?
I’m just saying, take a step back and look big picture here. We have what should be a tremendous rivalry between two tradition-rich schools with great fanbases in Michigan-Nebraska. The Little Brown Jug will be played for each and every season, like it should be. The already-bitter rivalry with Michigan State should only intensify. The Wolverines will get to duck Penn State and Wisconsin every once in a while, which should ease some of the team’s schedule difficulty. There will be a Big Ten Championship Game at the end of the season, like there should be — who doesn’t love big-time conference title games? Most importantly, The Game is in its rightful place, at the end of the regular season. And finally, unless every other writer claiming to have the inside scoop is astoundingly incorrect, Dennis Dodd is wrong, which makes this all feel very, very right.
On Saturday, the Big House will be full again, and we’ll all be enjoying (and stressing about, of course) the thing we should all be focusing on anyway: The Team, The Team, The Team.
The Associated Press is reporting that the Big Ten will announce the divisional alignment for the 2011 season and beyond tonight, and Jeff Rabjohns of the Indianapolis Star says the announcement will air at 7 pm on the Big Ten Network, and the schedules for the 2011 and 2012 seasons will also be revealed. Rumorsareflying around about how the divisions will shake out, and they all say the same thing:
Division 1: Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota
Division 2: Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue.
As you can see, Michigan and Ohio State will be in opposite divisions, as expected, but there are conflicting rumors as to whether The Game will take place in its traditional place at the end of the schedule or earlier in the season. Franky, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Big Ten to put Michigan and OSU in opposite divisions and keep The Game where it is, as that really opens up the possibility of having a meaningless regular-season matchup before the conference title game, but we’ll have to wait and see. I’ll have much more on this when the official word comes down tonight.
With the season just three (!) days away, it’s time to start breaking down the schedule game by game. Today, I’ll be looking at Michigan’s first four games, against Connecticut, Notre Dame, Massachusetts, and Bowling Green:
Game One — Sept. 4: Connecticut
Blog of Note: Sox and Dawgs
2009: 8-5 overall, 3-4 Big East, beat South Carolina 20-7 in Papajohns.com Bowl
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
Breakdown: Michigan will face a formidable foe to open the season when UConn visits the Big House on Saturday.On offense, the Huskies will be led by junior running back Jordan Todman, one of two UConn backs to break the 1,000-yard mark last season, who will see his role increase after the graduation of Andre Dixon. With Todman running behind four returning starters on the offensive line, the Huskies should be able to move the ball on the ground. The question for UConn’s offense will be how their passing game fares after their top two receivers from 2009 graduated and backup quarterback Cody Endres, who split the starting job with redshirt senior Zach Frazer last year, was suspended indefinitely by the team. Frazer will need to step up his game after completing just 53.2% of his passes and posting a 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year — he did look strong down the stretch, throwing eight of his touchdowns in his final five starts, but will have to be more consistent this season.
The Husky defense will be led by their strong linebacking corps, where they feature three former All-Big East players — fifth-year seniors Lawrence Wilson (140 tackles in 2009) and Scott Lutrus (69 tackles in just eight games) and senior Greg Lloyd (91 tackles). Lloyd was expected by most to redshirt this season after tearing his ACL and MCL late last season, but he has made a very quick recovery and will be in the lineup on Saturday. UConn also returns three starters along the defensive line, but they lost junior defensive end Marcus Campbell for the season with a torn ACL in fall camp — replacing him will be 6-1, 225-pound sophomore Trevardo Williams. The defensive backfield returns just two starters from a unit responsible for finishing 85th in the country in pass efficiency defense, and much like Michigan, they only have one safety on the roster with game experience.
Kicker Dave Teggart returns, but he converted just 14-of-23 field goal attempts in 2009, and the Huskies will be breaking in a new punter in redshirt freshman Cole Wagner.
Key Matchup: Denard Robinson and the running backs vs. UConn’s defensive ends — If Robinson starts as expected against UConn, Michigan will look to utilize Robinson’s game-breaking speed on the edge against the Huskies’ relatively-light defensive ends. If the Wolverines can for UConn to commit to stopping the run, that should open up the passing game for Robinson — is he is as improved as advertised in the passing game, he should have no problem picking apart UConn’s secondary.
Prediction: Connecticut’s offense should put up some points on the Michigan defense, but the Husky defense has some major holes to exploit as well. This should be a high-scoring affair and a close game, but I give the slight edge to the home team — Michigan 37, UConn 31
Game Two — Sept. 11: at Notre Dame
Blogs of Note: Rakes of Mallow, Subway Domer
2009: 6-6 overall, no bowl appearance Returning Starters: 14 (6 offense, 8 defense)
Breakdown: Notre Dame has to replace some big names in quarterback Jimmy Clausen and Biletnikoff Award-winner Golden Tate, but with offensive whiz Brian Kelly taking over as head coach from Charlie Weis and several blue-chip players in place, this is still a very dangerous team. Junior Dane Crist is coming off a torn ACL that cost him most of last fall and all of the spring, but the former five-star prospect should be an able replacement for Clausen. He’ll have the weapons around him to succeed, with junior Michael Floyd (who may be even better than Tate), freshman sensation Tai-ler Jones, and senior Duval Karmara at receiver, Mackey Award contender Kyle Rudolph at tight end, and senior Armando Allen returning at running back. The offensive line must replace three starters, and the Irish will have to make a successful transition to Kelly’s spread offense, but the pieces are in place for this to be an explosive unit.
On defense, Notre Dame will transition from the 4-3 to a 3-4 look as they hope to improve on a unit that finished 86th in the country in total defense in 2009. The front seven returns six starters, including nose tackle Ian Williams, who enters his fourth year as a starter, and former five-star linebacker recruit Manti Te’o, who tallied 63 tackles as a freshman last season. The Irish will have to be strong up front as the secondary breaks in two new starting safeties (although one, senior Harrison Smith, has starting experience at the strong safety but played linebacker last season) and looks to find some consistency from their experienced cornerbacks after finishing just 82nd in the country in pass efficiency defense.
The kicking game should be solid, as Notre Dame returns kicker Nick Tausch, who went 14-for-17 on field goals last year, and punter Ben Turk, who placed nine of his 26 attempts inside the opponent 20 while only kicking two touchbacks.
Key Matchup: J.T. Floyd vs. Michael Floyd — Michigan’s newly-anointed number one corner will have his hands full with 6-3, 220-pound Michael Floyd, who toasted the Wolverines to the tune of 7 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown in last season’s matchup before leaving the game early with a leg injury. J.T. Floyd should get plenty of safety help against one of the nation’s best receivers, but he will have to win some one-on-one battles if the Wolverines want to keep Michael Floyd from reproducing his 2009 stat line. That’s a tall task for a player who struggled mightily as a redshirt freshman last fall, even if he has made marked improvements this season.
Prediction: When it comes down to it, Notre Dame’s front seven is stronger than Michigan’s, and I have a tough time seeing how the Wolverines will slow down the Irish passing game. Taking this game in South Bend would be a big upset — Notre Dame 34, Michigan 24
Game Three — Sept. 18: Massachusetts
Blog of Note: UMass Football Blog(!)
2009: 5-6 overall, 3-5 CAA
Returning Starters: 8 (4 offense, 4 defense)
Breakdown: No offense to the Minutemen, but this will be short and sweet — UMass is an FBS program coming off a losing season that needs to replace almost two-thirds of its starters. If Michigan loses this game, I will quit watching football and take up a hobby that doesn’t involve the risk of experiencing a soul-crushing defeat of that magnitude. I will also throw a variety of living room furniture through the front window of my house and spend the following night drinking malt liquor on the street while screaming “Why?” Nancy Kerrigan-style. Luckily, this will not happen.
Key Matchup: Michigan vs. themselves — Seriously, a 5-6 Colonial Athletic Association team that returns just eight starters. The key will be successfully transporting the team to Michigan Stadium on time.
Prediction: Like the Delaware State game last season, you will spend the majority of the game wondering why these two teams are allowed to play each other — Michigan 63, UMass 13
Game Four — Sept. 25: Bowling Green
Blog of Note: FalconBlog
2009: 7-6 overall, 6-2 MAC, lost to Idaho 43-42 in Humanitarian Bowl
Returning Starters: 7 (3 offense, 4 defense)
Breakdown: Bowling Green will be in rebuilding mode after first-year coach Dave Clawson led the team to a surprising 7-6 record last season, spearheaded by the nation’s No. 6 passing offense. Gone are quarterback Taylor Sheehan, record-breaking receiver Freddie Barnes (who caught 155 passes in 2009, an NCAA record), fellow starting receiver Chris Wright, tight end Jimmy Sheidler, and three starters on the offensive line. While there is some upperclassmen talent remaining at receiver, for the most part the Falcons will have to turn to inexperienced youth, and there will likely be a significant drop-off in production. Redshirt freshman Matt Schilz is the projected starter at quarterback, but he has never attempted a collegiate pass; the team will likely rely on senior tailback Willie Geter, who rushed for over 700 yards last season in 13 starts, to keep the offense moving while the passing game finds its footing.
The defense will also have to replace more than half their starters, and the back seven for the Falcons was left decimated by graduation after 2009 — only cornerback Adrien Spencer remains from last year’s starters. Bowling Green does return three starters along the defensive line, but after finishing 103rd in the country in rushing defense last year, the Falcons will need much better play up front. With no returning linebackers and three starters gone in the secondary, Bowling Green would do well just to better last year’s mark of 398 total yards allowed per game.
The Falcons do return kicker Jerry Phillips, who made 8-of-13 field goals in 2009, but he will likely have to start at punter as well for the first time this season.
Key Matchup: Michigan’s secondary vs. Bowling Green’s passing game — This is somewhat of a cop-out, as the performance of the Wolverine secondary could easily be the key to every game this season, but it’s especially true against the Falcons. Despite the losses at quarterback and receiver, Bowling Green will still come out passing the ball — that’s Dave Clawson’s style, and I’d be very surprised if he changed it. The only way the Falcons stay in this game is if the secondary turns in a truly awful performance, which, unfortunately, is very much within the realm of possibility. Still, against a brand-new quarterback playing behind a relatively inexperienced line, Michigan should be able to slow down Bowling Green’s offense enough to keep this game comfortably in the Wolverines’ favor.
Prediction: Bowling Green might put up a few more points than Michigan fans would like to see, but this should still be an easy victory against a team that must completely rebuild on both sides of the ball — Michigan 45, Bowling Green 20
After the last two seasons, the counterpart to my “Five Hopeful Predictions” post should come rather easily — I could probably pick five things that will go horribly wrong with the secondary alone and do pretty well for myself. That would be too easy, however, so I’ll do my best to keep the focus on the team as a whole while making my five pessimistic predictions for the 2010 season (if you’re curious, here is last year’s version — I went 2/5, for the record):
The team finishes 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense — Last season, the Wolverines finished 70th in the country in pass efficiency defense, and that was with Donovan Warren and Troy Woolfolk manning the secondary. This year’s secondary features no player of Warren’s talent or Woolfolk’s experience, and the results likely won’t be pretty. The good news? It is possible to field a decent team with a horrific secondary: last year, Cal (8-5), Stanford (8-5), and Florida State (7-6 against a very tough schedule) all finished 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense. Those are outliers among some awful squads, but they’re also the schools with overall talent most comparable to Michigan’s at that point on the list. Teams will throw on Michigan, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll win. It does help, though, and the pass defense will likely cost the team some games in 2010.
Michigan’s defense records 20 or fewer sacks — Despite the presence of Brandon Graham and his 10.5 sacks, Michigan finished just 68th in the country with 22.0 team sacks in 2009. Graham is off to the NFL, and while the defensive line should still be the strength of the Wolverine defense, I don’t see how the team will fully replace Graham’s tremendous production while also trying to mask the deficiencies in the back seven. I still expect Craig Roh to have a big season, and Ryan Van Bergen is a very solid defensive end, but this team could have a tough time getting to the quarterback if for no other reason than that the secondary may not be able to slow down the passing game enough to give the pass rush a chance.
No player breaks the 1,000-yard rushing mark – With the coaching staff talking about rotating 3-4 players at running back, and the quarterback competition far from resolved, it’s tough to see anyone becoming the first Wolverine in the Rich Rodriguez era to eclipse the 1,000-yard plateau. The player with the best chance to prove me wrong may very well be Denard Robinson, who could threaten to put up Pat White-level numbers if he emerges as the clear number one quarterback, but that’s a very big “if” with Tate Forcier and Devin Gardner vying for playing time. While the Wolverines have several talented running backs, it doesn’t appear that anyone has emerged as a workhorse back — sophomore Vincent Smith, who is fresh off reconstructive knee surgery, sits atop the depth chart with oft-injured junior Michael Shaw, who may not even be academically qualified to play. Michigan should have a productive rushing offense, but it will likely be by committee, and not with a star feature back.
Michigan converts less than 65% of their field goals – I predicted this last year, and senior walk-on Jason Olesnavage managed to come through and prove me wrong, hitting 11-of-15 field goals for a 73.3% conversion rate. Once again, questions surround Michigan’s kicking game, however, and with Olesnavage gone redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons or redshirt freshman walk-on Seth Broekhuizen — currently listed as co-starters on the official depth chart — will have to step up. So far, the kickers have reportedly been inconsistent throughout the spring and fall, and I expect similar results as the season kicks off on Saturday. With no upperclassmen kicker — walk-on or otherwise — ready to take over the job, we might witness some major growing pains in the kicking game this year.
The team loses at least two of the three rivalry games – Those games, of course, being Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State. This may seem like a lack of progress after Michigan took down Notre Dame last season and came close to pulling an epic comeback in East Lansing, but that may be deceiving — both of those teams should be improved this season, and the Buckeyes appear to be bona-fide national title contenders. Michigan’s best chance at a rivalry victory will be at home against the Spartans, but road contests in South Bend and Columbus will be very daunting for a team so green on defense.
Let’s all hope I go 0/5 on these predictions, as my love for the team far outweighs any pride I have in my prognosticating ability. Starting tomorrow, the season preview content begins to wrap up with Part I of my predictions for each game.
Alex on 
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Game Nine — Nov. 6: Illinois
Game Ten — Nov. 13: at Purdue
Game Eleven — Nov. 20: Wisconsin
Game Twelve — Nov. 27: at Ohio State
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